Insights from the 2024 Supply and Demand Study
Australia’s healthcare system is facing a significant challenge in matching the supply of general practitioners (GPs) with the growing demands of its population. A recent study, “Supply and Demand Study: General Practitioners in Australia,” released in August 2024, sheds light on the key trends affecting the GP workforce and provides forecasts up to 2048.
Growing Demand, Insufficient Supply
The study reveals that despite an increase in the number of GPs—from 36,916 in 2018 to 39,449 in 2023—the growth is not sufficient to meet the healthcare needs of Australians. This shortage is more acute in rural, regional, and remote areas, exacerbating the struggle for equitable healthcare access. The analysis forecasts a shortfall of over 600 GP full-time equivalents (FTE) in 2024, escalating to more than 6,100 FTE by 2048.
Modelling Supply and Demand
Using microsimulation techniques, the study explores the impact of demographic shifts, such as aging and chronic disease prevalence, on GP services. Supply scenarios are constructed considering factors like GP training, migration, and retirement rates. Demand projections incorporate expected changes in health service utilisation linked to population health trends.
State and Territory Insights
Every state and territory is expected to experience a shortfall in GP services, with larger states facing the highest gaps. For instance, by 2048, New South Wales may see a shortage exceeding 2,300 FTE, while Victoria could face a gap of about 2,500 FTE. The Northern Territory, although smaller, will encounter the highest percentage shortfall at 23% in 2024.
Future Projections and Gender Dynamics
The study anticipates an increase in the proportion of female GPs, projected to rise from 49.6% in 2023 to 55.8% by 2048. However, average FTE per GP is expected to decline slightly, influenced by an increasing reliance on international medical graduates (IMGs) and the changing gender composition of the workforce.
Challenges and Next Steps
The findings underscore the need for strategic planning to address GP shortages and ensure sustainable healthcare delivery.
The journey towards a balanced GP workforce is complex but critical for Australia’s future healthcare landscape. By understanding and addressing these challenges, we can ensure that all Australians have access to the primary care they need.
At Alecto Australia, we’re committed to bridging this gap and ensuring that all Australians have access to quality healthcare. But we can’t do it alone. Whether you’re a GP looking for new opportunities or a healthcare provider in need of skilled professionals, we’re here to connect the dots. Contact us today on [email protected] to learn how you can be part of the solution.